How Hemedti is Leading What Remains of His Forces into Military Suicide ?
The military and political landscape in Sudan is witnessing critical shifts leaning decisively in favor of the Sudanese Army and its allied forces, contrasted with an unprecedented retreat and rapid field decline of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The recent recorded address by RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as “Hemedti,” serves as a revealing turning point highlighting the structural crisis and impending collapse facing his forces. His speech carried clear indicators that the leadership has abandoned the most basic rules of chain of command and military discipline, driving the conflict to the edge of full-scale military suicide.
At the first light of dawn last Sunday, the Sudanese Army announced the recovery of several key cities and strategic locations in North Kordofan State that were previously controlled by the RSF, namely the cities of Jabrat Al-Sheikh, Bara, and Um Sayyala. The retrieval of these highly strategic areas represents a significant gain for the Sudanese Army and a devastating loss for the RSF. This advance secured and reopened the vital 400-kilometer export road connecting Omdurman to the city of El-Obeid, establishing a new supply route to Khartoum and neighboring states. This achievement resonated deeply with the Sudanese public, who took to the streets—particularly in North Kordofan State—cheering in support of the army and celebrating what they considered a decisive victory following long suffering under RSF control and abuses. Meanwhile, residents of El-Obeid breathed a sigh of relief after weeks under a harrowing siege and constant fears of a repeated El-Fasher scenario. This military progress followed fierce clashes that inflicted heavy casualties and equipment losses on the RSF, forcing the remaining elements to flee and abandon a massive arsenal of advanced drones, air defense missiles, and armored vehicles.
Following this sweeping army advance, RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo “Hemedti” released a video message via social media addressed to his frontline troops. Political and military analysts noted several alarming signals in his address, most notably an underlying tone of anger and rage that he tried in vain to conceal. Hemedti labeled his address as a “message”—a term unused in standard military protocol by a commander addressing troops actively engaged on the battlefield—and told them “you did not fall short,” in stark contrast to the reality on the ground, which saw his forces suffer a painful defeat, flee, and abandon their equipment. Furthermore, Hemedti used informal phrasing such as “changing the game” instead of standard military terms like “the plan,” while shifting the burden of planning and battle strategy onto his field commanders and soldiers. This unusual approach clearly indicates that his forces lack military structure and discipline, and that the leadership is faltering in managing critical engagements.
Deconstructing the dangerous contents of Hemedti’s speech reveals the profound confusion and disarray within the militia across field and organizational levels. His call to lift restraints and act without limits through the phrase “from today, we have unleashed the reins” carries grave implications, signaling a complete removal of restrictions and giving a green light to field forces to attack, storm cities, and operate without returning to command or adhering to military or moral codes. On the ground, this directive is interpreted as a “blank check” legitimizing acts of killing, looting, plundering, rape, summary execution of prisoners, and the destruction of civil infrastructure.
Moreover, the address contains explicit incitement toward escalation and revenge through phrases such as “change the path you are on” and “from today, no sleep… it is to be or not to be”. These words demonstrate that the RSF has officially transitioned from an offensive, expansionist mode to a posture of “existential defense” at point-blank range—a shift that embodies defeat and pushes trapped fighters into a desperate battle for survival using reckless, retaliatory measures driven by an imminent sense of doom.
Additionally, empowering field commanders to purge anyone suspected of disloyalty under the banner of “clean out the fifth column” represents the most dangerous slippery slope for the militia’s internal structure. Granting field commanders the authority to carry out summary executions based merely on suspicion or allegations of spying opens the door wide for personal and tribal vendettas among the complex tribal factions forming the RSF. This self-authorized mandate is bound to further damage the RSF’s international image, as it opens the floodgates to atrocities, murder, and pillaging, raising serious human rights concerns and triggering widespread international condemnations that deepen its isolation as an insurgent terrorist group. Concurrently, delegating purges creates severe internal friction that could trigger inner fighting and rapid disintegration, especially amid the accelerating wave of defections the militia has suffered since field commander Abu Agla Keikel defected in October 2024, followed by Major General Al-Nur Al-Qubba, commander Al-Savana, and the voluntary surrender of hundreds of fighters with their full equipment to the army.
This military escalation and field collapse of the militia occur against the backdrop of catastrophic humanitarian conditions in Sudan, categorized as the world’s largest displacement and hunger crisis. The war has resulted in the deaths of over 200,000 people and displaced millions, while more than 33 million Sudanese are in dire, urgent need of humanitarian assistance. The crisis deepens daily due to prolonged blockades and continuous indiscriminate drone attacks targeting populated cities and critical civilian infrastructure, including power stations and medical facilities.